A spatio-temporal framework for modelling wastewater concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology as an early warning tool has been explored widely across the globe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater were developed early in the pandemic, and extensive work has been conducted to evaluate the relationship between viral concentration and COVID-19 case numbers at the catchment areas of sewage treatment works (STWs) over time. However, no attempt has been made to develop a model that predicts wastewater concentration at fine spatio-temporal resolutions covering an entire country, a necessary step towards using wastewater monitoring for the early detection of local outbreaks. We consider weekly averages of flow-normalised viral concentration, reported as the number of SARS-CoV-2N1 gene copies per litre (gc/L) of wastewater available at 303 STWs over the period between 1 June 2021 and 30 March 2022. We specify a spatially continuous statistical model that quantifies the relationship between weekly viral concentration and a collection of covariates covering socio-demographics, land cover and virus associated genomic characteristics at STW catchment areas while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. We evaluate the model's predictive performance at the catchment level through 10-fold cross-validation. We predict the weekly viral concentration at the population-weighted centroid of the 32,844 lower super output areas (LSOAs) in England, then aggregate these LSOA predictions to the Lower Tier Local Authority level (LTLA), a geography that is more relevant to public health policy-making. We also use the model outputs to quantify the probability of local changes of direction (increases or decreases) in viral concentration over short periods (e.g. two consecutive weeks). The proposed statistical framework can predict SARS-CoV-2 viral concentration in wastewater at high spatio-temporal resolution across England. Additionally, the probabilistic quantification of local changes can be used as an early warning tool for public health surveillance.

The wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant resulted in a rapid spike and decline as highlighted by municipal wastewater surveillance.

This paper highlights the extraordinarily rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 loads in wastewater that during the Omicron wave in December 2021-February 2022, compared with the profiles acquired in 2020-21 with 410 samples from two wastewater treatment plants (Trento+suburbs, 132,500 inhabitants). Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater focused on: (i) 3 samplings/week and analysis, (ii) normalization to calculate genomic units (GU) inh-1 d-1; (iii) calculation of a 7-day moving average to smooth daily fluctuations; (iv) comparison with the 'current active cases'/100,000 inh progressively affected by the mass vaccination. The time profiles of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater matched the waves of active cases. In February-April 2021, a viral load of 1.0E＋07 GU inh-1 d - 1 corresponded to 700 active cases/100,000 inh. In July-September 2021, although the low current active cases, sewage revealed an appreciable SARS-CoV-2 circulation (in this period 2.2E＋07 GU inh-1 d-1 corresponded to 90 active cases/100,000 inh). Omicron was not detected in wastewater until mid-December 2021. The Omicron spread caused a 5-6 fold increase of the viral load in two weeks, reaching the highest peak (2.0-2.2E＋08 GU inh-1 d-1 and 4500 active cases/100,000 inh) during the pandemic. In this period, wastewater surveillance anticipated epidemiological data by about 6 days. In winter 2021-22, despite the 4-7 times higher viral loads in wastewater, hospitalizations were 4 times lower than in winter 2020-21 due to the vaccination coverage >80%. The Omicron wave demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 monitoring of wastewater anticipated epidemiological data, confirming its importance in long-term surveillance.

Normalization of SARS-CoV-2 viral load via RT-qPCR provides higher-resolution data for comparison across time and between patients.

The 2020 pandemic has transformed the world and elicited thousands of studies to better understand the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Viral load has been a common measure to monitor treatment therapies and associate viral dynamics with patient outcomes; however, methods associated with viral load have varied across studies. These variations have the potential to sacrifice the accuracy of findings as they often do not account for inter-assay variation or variation across samples. In a retrospective study of nasopharyngeal samples, we found a significant amount of variation within the DNA and RNA targets; for example, across time within a single patient, there was an average of a 32-fold change. Further, we explore the impacts of host normalization on 94 clinical samples using the TGen Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 assay, finding that without host normalization samples with the same viral concentration can have up to 100-fold variation in the viral load.

Impact of dexamethasone on SARS-CoV-2 concentration kinetics and antibody response in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Dexamethasone has become the standard of care for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but its virological impact is poorly understood. The objectives of this work were to characterize the kinetics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) concentration in the upper respiratory tract (URT) and the antibody response in patients with (D+) and without (D-) dexamethasone treatment. METHODS: Data and biosamples from hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19, enrolled between 4th March and 11th December 2020 in a prospective observational study, were analysed. SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration in serial URT samples was measured using RT-PCR. SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulins A and G (IgA and IgG) were measured in serum samples using S1-ELISA. RESULTS: We compared 101 immunocompetent patients who received dexamethasone (according to the inclusion criteria and dosage determined in the RECOVERY trial) to 93 immunocompetent patients with comparable disease severity from the first months of the pandemic, who had not been treated with dexamethasone or other glucocorticoids. We found no inter-group differences in virus concentration kinetics, duration of presence of viral loads >106 viral copies/mL (D+ median 17 days (IQR 13-24), D- 19 days (IQR 13-29)), or time from symptom onset until seroconversion (IgA: D+ median 11.5 days (IQR 11-12), D- 14 days (IQR 11.5-15.75); IgG: D+ 13 days (IQR 12-14.5), D- 12 days (IQR 11-15)). CONCLUSION: Dexamethasone does not appear to lead to a change in virus clearance or a delay in antibody response in immunocompetent patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19.

Clinical and virological characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in a German tertiary care centre during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: a prospective observational study.

PURPOSE: Adequate patient allocation is pivotal for optimal resource management in strained healthcare systems, and requires detailed knowledge of clinical and virological disease trajectories. The purpose of this work was to identify risk factors associated with need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), to analyse viral kinetics in patients with and without IMV and to provide a comprehensive description of clinical course. METHODS: A cohort of 168 hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients enrolled in a prospective observational study at a large European tertiary care centre was analysed. RESULTS: Forty-four per cent (71/161) of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Shorter duration of symptoms before admission (aOR 1.22 per day less, 95% CI 1.10-1.37, p < 0.01) and history of hypertension (aOR 5.55, 95% CI 2.00-16.82, p < 0.01) were associated with need for IMV. Patients on IMV had higher maximal concentrations, slower decline rates, and longer shedding of SARS-CoV-2 than non-IMV patients (33 days, IQR 26-46.75, vs 18 days, IQR 16-46.75, respectively, p < 0.01). Median duration of hospitalisation was 9 days (IQR 6-15.5) for non-IMV and 49.5 days (IQR 36.8-82.5) for IMV patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a short duration of symptoms before admission as a risk factor for severe disease that merits further investigation and different viral load kinetics in severely affected patients. Median duration of hospitalisation of IMV patients was longer than described for acute respiratory distress syndrome unrelated to COVID-19.

Co-quantification of crAssphage increases confidence in wastewater-based epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in low prevalence areas.

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA is increasingly being incorporated into public health efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to obtain the maximum benefit from these efforts, approaches to wastewater monitoring need to be rapid, sensitive, and relatable to relevant epidemiological parameters. In this study, we present an ultracentrifugation-based method for the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA and use crAssphage, a bacteriophage specific to the human gut, to help account for RNA loss during transit in the wastewater system and sample processing. With these methods, we were able to detect, and sometimes quantify, SARS-CoV-2 RNA from 20 mL wastewater samples within as little as 4.5 hours. Using known concentrations of bovine coronavirus RNA and deactivated SARS-CoV-2, we estimate recovery rates of approximately 7-12% of viral RNA using our method. Results from 24 sewersheds across Upstate New York during the spring and summer of 2020 suggested that stronger signals of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater may be indicative of greater COVID-19 incidence in the represented service area approximately one week in advance. SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA was quantifiable in some service areas with daily positives tests of less than 1 per 10,000 people or when weekly positive test rates within a sewershed were as low as 1.7%. crAssphage DNA concentrations were significantly lower during periods of high flow in almost all areas studied. After accounting for flow rate and population served, crAssphage levels per capita were estimated to be about 1.35 × 1011 and 2.42 × 108 genome copies per day for DNA and RNA, respectively. A negative relationship between per capita crAssphage RNA and service area size was also observed likely reflecting degradation of RNA over long transit times. Our results reinforce the potential for wastewater surveillance to be used as a tool to supplement understanding of infectious disease transmission obtained by traditional testing and highlight the potential for crAssphage co-detection to improve interpretations of wastewater surveillance data.

Evaluation of two rapid ultrafiltration-based methods for SARS-CoV-2 concentration from wastewater.

Quantitative measurements of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in raw wastewater have been implemented worldwide since the beginning of the pandemic. Recent efforts are being made to evaluate different viral concentration methodologies to overcome supplier shortages during lockdowns. A set of 22-wastewater samples seeded with murine hepatitis virus (MHV), a member of the Coronaviridae family, and the bacteriophage MS2, were used to characterize and compare two ultrafiltration-based methods: a centrifugal ultrafiltration device (Centricon® Plus-70) and the automated concentrating pipette CP-Select™. Based on the recovery efficiencies, significant differences were observed for MHV, with Centricon® Plus-70 (24%) being the most efficient method. Nevertheless, concentrations of naturally occurring SARS-CoV-2, Human adenoviruses and JC polyomaviruses in these samples did not result in significant differences between methods suggesting that testing naturally occurring viruses may complement the evaluation of viral concentration methodologies. Based on the virus adsorption to solids and the necessity of a pre-centrifugation step to remove larger particles and avoid clogging when using ultrafiltration methods, we assessed the percentage of viruses not quantified after ultrafiltration. Around 23% of the detected SARS-CoV-2 would be discarded during the debris removal step. The CP-Select™ provided the highest concentration factor (up to 333×) and the lowest LoD (6.19 × 103 GC/l) for MHV and proved to be fast, automatic, highly reproducible and suitable to work under BSL-2 measures.

Evaluation of viral concentration methods for SARS-CoV-2 recovery from wastewaters.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a useful tool that has the potential to act as a complementary approach to monitor the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and as an early alarm system for COVID-19 outbreak. Many studies reported low concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage and also revealed the need for methodological validation for enveloped viruses concentration in wastewater. The aim of this study was to evaluate different methodologies for the concentration of viruses in wastewaters and to select and improve an option that maximizes the recovery of SARS-CoV-2. A total of 11 concentration techniques based on different principles were evaluated: adsorption-elution protocols with negatively charged membranes followed by polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation (Methods 1-2), PEG precipitation (Methods 3-7), aluminum polychloride (PAC) flocculation (Method 8), ultrafiltration (Method 9), skim milk flocculation (Method 10) and adsorption-elution with negatively charged membrane followed by ultrafiltration (Method 11). To evaluate the performance of these concentration techniques, feline calicivirus (FCV) was used as a process control in order to avoid the risk associated with handling SARS-CoV-2. Two protocols, one based on PEG precipitation and the other on PAC flocculation, showed high efficiency for FCV recovery from wastewater (62.2% and 45.0%, respectively). These two methods were then tested for the specific recovery of SARS-CoV-2. Both techniques could recover SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater, PAC flocculation showed a lower limit of detection (4.3 × 102 GC/mL) than PEG precipitation (4.3 × 103 GC/mL). This work provides a critical overview of current methods used for virus concentration in wastewaters and the analysis of sensitivity for the specific recovery of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage. The data obtained here highlights the viability of WBE for the surveillance of COVID-19 infections in the community.